Fabricated graphic on opinion polls shared to claim BJP will lose the upcoming Karnataka polls

Context
The Karnataka Assembly polls are scheduled to take place on May 10 and will be conducted in a single phase. As the polls are just a week away, several media outlets and research organizations have published opinion polls for the upcoming elections in the southern Indian state. However, these polls are being used to spread misinformation on social media.

Numerous users have shared a graphic purportedly by news channel NDTV to claim that, according to the opinion poll results, Congress is likely to win the Karnataka elections. The report card attributed to NDTV comprises results from various opinion polls, including NDTV Poll of Polls, ABP C-Voter Poll, Eedina, TV9 Kannada, C Daily Tracker, Lok Poll, RSS Internal Survey, and State Intelligence Bureau. The caption of one such post read, "BREAKING NOW - KARNATAKA ELECTIONS Most Opinion Polls are unanimously predicting that in Karnataka, BJP is staring at their biggest defeat due to huge anti-incumbency against 40% Commission govt. Today, the NDTV Poll of Polls Tracker is predicting that ." The post has received over 50,000 views and 779 likes.

In Fact
NDTV has issued a statement clarifying that they did not post any such graphic predicting Congress's win in the Karnataka elections. They further mentioned that the NDTV Poll of Exit Polls would be announced on May 10 after the voting. This proves that the graphic is fabricated.

The graphic in the viral post lists opinion poll results from ABP C-Voter Poll, Eedina, TV9 Kannada, C Daily Tracker, Lok Poll, RSS Internal Survey, and State Intelligence Bureau. We found that while most of them predicted a victory for Congress, there were several discrepancies in the numbers presented in the graphic.

According to ABP C-Voter, Congress is expected to win 107-119 out of 224 assembly seats in Karnataka, while BJP and JD(S) may get 74-86 seats and 23-35 seats, respectively. The remaining parties are predicted to secure 0-5 seats. The viral post incorrectly claimed that ABP reported that Congress would win 120-131 seats, BJP 61-75 seats, JD(S) 16-26 seats, and Others 0-5 seats.

Eedina's opinion poll predicted that Congress would win 132-140 seats, BJP 57-65 seats, and JDS+ 19-25 seats, with 1-5 seats for others. The data in the viral post is correct for all parties except 'Others.'

Meanwhile, C Daily Tracker predicted that Congress would win 130-157 seats, BJP to get 37-56, JDS+ 22-34, and other independent parties to win 0-3 seats. However, the viral post misleadingly reported that C Daily Tracker data predicted Congress would get 154 seats, BJP 43 seats, JDS+ 21 seats, and Others 6 seats.

We could not find any reports confirming that RSS conducted an internal survey predicting Congress's victory. Logically Facts had previously debunked a similar claim about an RSS survey predicting Congress's victory in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly polls.

There is also no evidence that the State Intelligence Bureau conducted or published any such opinion poll predicting Congress's victory in the upcoming polls. The data in the viral post is false.

The Verdict
A fabricated graphic has been circulating online claiming that most media outlets and research organizations, including NDTV, have predicted Congress's victory in the 2023 Karnataka polls. NDTV has stated that it did not post this graphic. Further, while it is true that many opinion polls have indicated a win for Congress, the data in the viral graphic is incorrect.