Analysis does not find Denmark's Muslims cost the state 33 billion a year

Context

Users on social media claim that Denmark's Muslim population is costing the Danish state 33 billion Danish kroner annually. 

The figure is seemingly based on a 2017 analysis by the Danish Ministry of Finance. 

However, the analysis did not look specifically at Muslims, but at so-called "non-Western" immigrants and descendants of immigrants. Descendants, in particular, tend to be younger people who haven't yet been able to contribute to public finances through work taxes. 

An update of the analysis shows the net cost to public finances of non-Western immigrants and descendants of immigrants to be 27 billion Danish kroner in 2019. 

In fact

Since 2017, Denmark's Ministry of Finance has assessed the yearly contribution of different groups to public finances, focusing especially on immigrants and descendants of immigrants from Western and non-Western countries. 

The 2017 analysis found that immigrants from non-Western countries had a net cost of 16 billion Danish kroner on public finances while non-Western descendants had a net cost of 17 billion Danish kroner, equalling a total of 33 billion. 

Distinction between Western countries and non-Western countries as defined by Statistics Denmark. (Statistics Denmark/Logically Facts)

The analysis did not focus on different religious groups. It was based on people's countries of origin. People from non-Western countries are not all Muslim; in many cases, Islam is not the religion of the majority population.

"To equate people from non-Western countries with Muslims is, in my opinion, wrong," Dorthe Larsen, head of the department for Population and Education at Statistics Denmark, the central authority on Danish statistics and the body responsible for the distinction between Western and non-Western countries, told Logically Facts. 

The relatively sizable net cost of non-Western descendants is largely explained by the fact that the group tends to consist of younger people who have not reached the stage in their lives where they contribute to the public finances through income tax. 

"The vast majority of descendants, especially from non-Western countries, are children and young people who draw on public services but do not (yet) contribute to public revenue," the Ministry writes. 

The net cost of immigrants is mostly due to the group's low employment rate compared to other groups. This reflects that the group is diverse, as it includes refugees, people reunified with family, and immigrants who come to Denmark to work or study.

Experts have also pointed out that immigrants tend to have lower-paying jobs. 

The latest analysis available, from 2023, shows that in 2019, non-Western immigrants and descendants contributed a net 27 billion Danish kroner to public finances.

The net cost of non-Western immigrants and their descendants has generally shrunk year-to-year in the period analyzed by the Ministry of Finance. 

The verdict

The referenced analysis did not focus on Muslims or any other religious groups. It was based on people's country of origin. It did show that in 2014 the net cost on public finances of non-Western immigrants and descendants equalled 33 billion Danish kroner. This is in part due to descendants being mostly young people who draw on public services but do not (yet) contribute to public revenue. Net cost to public finances of immigrants and their descendants has shrunk year-to-year. In 2019, it was 27 billion Danish kroner. Therefore, we have marked this claim as misleading.