Study on global warming rate shared out of context

What is the claim? 

A screenshot of an article from an outlet known to publish misinformation is circulating online that claims scientists have found "no change" in global warming rates since 1970. An archived version of the article can be viewed here.

The People's Voice has a history of spreading misinformation. Logically Facts has debunked many claims published by The People's Voice. 

The social media posts making the same claim can be accessed here, here, and here.

Screenshots of the article circulated on social media. (Source: Facebook/X/Modified by Logically Facts) 

However, the peer-reviewed study cited in The People's Voice has been taken out of context. The study's lead author confirmed that it does not deny global warming and was not designed to do so.  

What we found 

The People's Voice article cites a study (archive here) titled "A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet," published in Communications Earth & Environment, an open-access journal from Nature published on October 14, 2024. It was authored by five researchers —  Claudie Beaulieu, Colin Gallagher, Rebecca Killick, Robert Lund, and Xueheng Shi — to see if an acceleration in the warming rate was "detectable from a statistical perspective."

What does the study say?

This study uses global mean surface temperature data to examine global warming trends over the past 50 years and determine whether the warming pace has accelerated or slowed. It uses data on temperature averages from four agencies, including NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), dating back to 1850.

The findings indicate no statistically significant change in the warming rate since the 1970s despite 2023's record temperatures. It states that at least a 55 percent surge would be required to be detectable. 

Notably, the study acknowledges that "global warming has not paused." Contrary to the online claims, the study shows steadily increasing surface temperatures since the 1970s.  

Logically Facts reached out to Claudie Beaulieu, associate professor in the Ocean Sciences Department at the University of California Santa Cruz and lead author of the paper. Professor Beaulieu said, "Our results suggest that if a recent acceleration in global warming is occurring, the size of that acceleration is either too small or too recent to robustly detect it in globally-averaged surface temperature records." 

Professor Beaulieu affirmed that the results do not disprove that climate change is happening. "The point of the study is that it will take additional years of observations to detect an acceleration (or any change in the rate of warming)." She added that while global warming acceleration remains undetected, regional and local temperature patterns may vary significantly.

Expert reactions (archive here) to the study published by the Science Media Center, an independent press office for science, support this clarification. Dr. Kevin Collins, Senior Lecturer of Environment and Systems at the Open University, was quoted by the Science Media Centre saying, "Through an authoritative statistical analysis of temperature increases since 1970, this research concludes that there is no detectable surge. Yet. Instead, the results suggest global warming is occurring at a steady state." He does warn that the study is in danger of being misinterpreted and feeding into complacency. 

Several established agencies and experts have recorded an increase in temperature since the 1970s. NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) report (archive here) states that the majority of the warming has occurred since 1975 "at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade." The report shows a slow but steady increase in global temperatures. According to NOAA, the Earth's temperature has risen by 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since the 1850s. The World Meteorological Organization also noted a spike in the global warming rate in 2023.

Additionally, reports by Lancaster and Clemson universities about the study confirm that its findings show the Earth's temperature is rising at a steady, non-accelerating rate and have not dismissed the increase in global temperatures.

This confirms that the study cited in the People's Voice article reveals a slow global warming acceleration rate with a less than 55 percent surge since 1970. It does not deny changes in the global warming rate.

The verdict 

The global warming rate study published in the journal Nature was misinterpreted. In fact, the study reports that although there has been no detectable "surge" in the acceleration of the global warming rate since the 1970s, warming continues to occur at a steady rate.