Russian disinformation falsely warns of 'preemptive NATO strike'

The claim

Russian and Ukrainian news outlets have falsely reported that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is considering "preemptive strikes" against Russia, using a misattributed quote from the head of the alliance's Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer.

The Russian news site EADaily cited Admiral Bauer as saying: "It is more competent not to wait, but to hit launchers in Russia in case Russia attacks us. A combination of precision strikes is needed that will disable the systems that are used to attack us, and we must strike first."

Similarly, Russia's disinformation network Pravda reported that "NATO publicly declares a preemptive strike against Russia," with Admiral Bauer quoted as saying: "...we must strike first."

Tass, UNIAN, Ukraine Today, and the Russian site Top War have published similar articles. 

The claim has been shared widely on social media, where one X post gained over 1.4 million views and another X post over 226,000 views within less than 24 hours. The claim also appeared on TikTok and Facebook.

The problem is, Admiral Bauer hasn't said this.

In fact

According to the Russian media outlets, Admiral Bauer made these comments at a conference in Brussels on November 25. However, by searching for reporting from other sites, we found that Bauer spoke at the EPC Thought Leadership Forum in Brussels on that day, organized by the European Policy Centre.

While other news outlets did report on Admiral Bauer's statements at the conference, they did not mention anything about NATO changing its defensive stance. Reuters, for example, focused on Admiral Bauer's comments about how business leaders should prepare for a wartime scenario. A keyword search on Bloomberg for "Rob Bauer" or "NATO" yields no relevant recent articles, indicating that the quote from EADaily did not come from there.

To double-check what was said at the conference, Logically Facts looked at the transcript from the panel discussion with Bauer from EPC's event, which is available on YouTube. A keyword search shows that Bauer only used the word "strike" three times, in response to a question (starting at 48:45) on whether NATO has the forces, equipment, capabilities, and social readiness in case of an attack in Europe.

Admiral Bauer responded that NATO needs to invest more in air defense and particularly deep precision strikes, which reflects a relatively recent change in attitude in NATO.

"The idea was, 'we're a defensive alliance so we will only sit and wait until we're attacked – and when we're attacked, we will be able to shoot down the arrows that come to us'," Admiral Bauer said. 

"But it's smarter not only to do that, but also to attack the Archer that is in Russia, if Russia attacks us. So you need to have a combination of deep precision strikes with which you can take out the weapon systems that are used to attack us and of course, because we're a defensive alliance, we will have to take the first blow," he continued, and added: "So Russia will start the conflict, because we are not going to attack Russia out of nothing."

This real quote is strikingly similar to those appearing in Russian and Ukrainian news articles — apart from "we will have to take the first blow," which has been changed to "we must strike first".

Similarities are highlighted in green and irregularities in red. (Source: YouTube, EADaily, Pravda, Top War/Screenshots/Modified by Logically Facts)

A NATO spokesperson confirmed to Logically Facts that the quotes are incorrect and that the Admiral did not, at any point, suggest that NATO would attack Russia.

"We saw that the news had significant traction in Ukraine. Euromaidan has since issued a rectification and we hope others will follow," the spokesperson added.

Logically Facts also found that the Ukrainian outlet UNIAN changed the wording in their headline, from "'Don't wait, but hit the launchers': pre-emptive strikes on Russia are being discussed in NATO" (archived here) to "'Attack the archer who is in Russia': NATO is discussing strikes against the aggressor" (archived here).

X post showing Euromaidan's rectification. (Source: X/Screenshot)

"Classic disinformation"

Orla Vigsø, a professor of Media Communications at the University of Gothenburg who specializes in political rhetoric and disinformation, said the Russian news reports are "classic disinformation."

"It could almost have been a translation mistake, but it fits the pattern of distorting a statement to defend your own policy," he told Logically Facts. 

According to Vigsø, the false quote is "clearly a way of legitimizing" Russia's recent decision to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

"They're saying 'look at the threat from the West - there is a real risk that we will be attacked.' It's not surprising at all," Vigsø said.

Logically Facts has reached out to the EPC, Bloomberg, and the Ukrainian outlet UNIAN for comment. This fact-check will be updated if we receive a response. 

The verdict

Based on the transcript from the panel discussion, there is no evidence that Admiral Bauer said NATO would strike Russia preemptively. Admiral Bauer said NATO "will have to take the first blow," not that NATO "will have to strike first," as reported by Ukrainian and Russian media outlets. Therefore, we have rated the claim as false.

Additional reporting by Iryna Hnatiuk.