No, Labour is not solely responsible for the historically high U.K national debt

The claim

Recent figures from the U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the country's public sector net debt, excluding that of state-owned banks, has reached 100.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) as of the end of August 2024. This is the highest level since the early 1960s.

On social media, several posts are attributing this to the Labour government, which came to power in June this year.

"Labour Government Pushes U.K. Debt to Historic Highs," reads one Facebook post with 174 comments and 110 shares.

"Labour are bankrupting the country!" reads another Facebook post with over 2,600 reactions.

However, the national debt has built up over the last two decades, not over the last three months of Labour leadership, and has been influenced by global economic shocks rather than political leadership.

(First, some terminology)

Public sector net debt, also known as "national debt," is created when governments and other public sector bodies borrow from the private sector and foreign governments. This is typically done to meet expenses and cover the fiscal deficit — the shortfall that happens when the government spends more than it generates through revenues such as taxes.

Comparing a country's national debt to its GDP — the total market value of the goods and services produced within a country — is a way of determining whether the country can pay back its debts. 

According to the World Population Review, countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 77 percent can experience slowed-down economic growth and, in some cases, they run a greater risk of defaulting on their debts. 

The facts

According to the ONS, the increase in national debt "almost entirely reflects" the build-up of primary deficits, which is the fiscal deficit minus interest payments on previous borrowings. Over the last two decades, the ONS notes, the U.K. primary deficits have been greater than normal due to a series of economic shocks; the global financial crisis (2007-2008), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), and the energy price crisis (2022-2023). 

Altogether, these economic shocks have contributed to a drastic increase in national debt, from 34.3 percent of GDP in March 2006 to 98.5 percent in March 2024. Labour was in power until 2010, but the remaining period has been under Conservative rule. 

For example, during the first financial year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/21), the U.K. budget deficit reached a peacetime high of 15 percent of GDP — significantly higher than the average annual deficit of 3.7 percent — and government spending increased by 18.8 percentage points to 53.1 percent of GDP. In total, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in between £310 and £410 billion in extra costs for the government. Due to high inflation, increased interest rates, and slow economic growth, the U.K. budget deficit has remained higher than normal in 2022/23 and 2023/24.

"It is pretty clear that the current level of debt is not due to the current Labour government," Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies, told Logically Facts. "It has increased a lot since 2008 — unsurprising since we have had a financial crisis, a pandemic, and a cost-of-living crisis in relatively quick succession."

Emmerson noted that this isn't the first time the national debt has been thought to hit 100 percent in recent years: "It has happened a few times since the start of the pandemic, and then been subsequently revised down."

This could be the case this time, too, as the ONS has clarified that the estimate of the debt-to-GDP ratio in recent months is "highly provisional and is likely to be revised in future publications," as it partly relies on GDP forecasts from March 2024.

"While it may resonate, technically there is nothing particularly special about debt being 100 percent rather than 99 or 101 percent of GDP," Emmerson added. "It does, however, remain the case that the public finances are very challenging."

The verdict

The U.K. national debt did reach 100 percent of GDP in August 2024, but it's been building up for several years during which Labour was not in power, due to factors that go beyond political leadership. Therefore, we have rated this claim as misleading.