No, asylum seekers in Ireland do not outnumber Irish citizens

Context

A video shared on X (formerly Twitter) claims that the population of migrants is now similar to or outnumbers Irish citizens and that most of these migrants are "military-aged men." The video (archived here) was shared on August 31, 2024, and has been viewed more than 47,700 times. 

In the video, a man who claims to be a military expert says that the population of asylum seekers, who he labels "invaders," is believed to be two million, while the population of Irish people is believed to be three million. 

"I've gone over to Ireland and looked at this. I can't audit the two million number but when you're there it looks like it passes the sniff test," he says. 

He later says that the number of "military-aged males of the invaders" are on "parity with the Irish, if not even outnumber them at this point," and says because of this, Ireland is "set for genocide right now." 

The man is unidentified in the clip. In the bottom right corner is the logo for Decentralize TV, a podcast that releases alarmist episodes about cryptocurrency and living off-grid. 

However, none of his claims match the current statistics. According to statistics from the Central Statistics Office and the International Protection Accommodation (IPAS) services, less than one million non-Irish citizens live in the country, and less than 50,000 of them are asylum seekers. 

What we found

Ireland's Central Statistics Office published its latest population and migration estimates on August 27, 2024, using data from April 2024. According to the estimates, 5,380,300 people were "usually resident" in Ireland. Of these, 4,544,100, or 84 percent, were Irish citizens. Non-Irish citizens made up 15.5 percent, or 836,200 people.

The number of asylum seekers is even smaller. According to the latest IPAS statistics published on September 4, 2024, 32,017 asylum seekers are currently being accommodated in the IPAS system, and 8,570 of them are children. 

Logically Facts has contacted the CSO for comment.

The verdict 

In a video shared on X, a man claims that the number of asylum seekers in Ireland is now equal to or greater than the number of native Irish people. However, statistics from the Irish government show that over 84 percent of people living in Ireland are citizens and that the number of asylum seekers in the country is 32,017. We have, therefore, rated this claim false.