India News pre-poll survey shared as Lok Sabha exit poll predicting 'win for BJP'

What is the claim?

The final day of polling for the ongoing general elections in India is Saturday, June 1, with the results set to be declared on June 4. As the country awaits the outcome, a screenshot from India News, a Hindi-language media outlet, allegedly showing exit poll results, is circulating on social media.

It predicts a win for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with 383 seats in Parliament and 109 seats for the INDIA bloc. These numbers are displayed at the top of the bulletin, with Rajasthan’s opinion poll survey results shown on the left side.

One such post (archived here) on X (formerly Twitter) shared the viral image with the caption, “Just In: Live Exit Poll, NDA - 383, INDI Alliance - 109, Other - 51 Source - India News Election 2024.” The image is also circulating on Facebook with a similar claim (archived version here).

Screenshot of the viral post circulating on social media. (Source: X/Screenshot/Modified by Logically Facts) 

However, we found that the image depicts a pre-poll survey published by India News before the general elections began.

What did we find?

A reverse image search of the viral picture led us to a YouTube video uploaded by India News (archived here) on April 16, 2024. The title of this video reads, “Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll: Who is winning from Jalore in the Opinion Poll of Rajasthan? India News.” The viral image appears at the 0:56 timestamp in the video. The opinion poll was conducted in various locations, both urban and rural, and included online surveys.

The same video was also shared on the news portal's official X account (archived here).

Screenshot a video uploaded by India News on April 16. (Source: YouTube/screenshot)

Furthermore, the opinion survey (archived here) published by India News was conducted in collaboration with Decoding Dynamics, a social media agency based in West Bengal. The survey gathered opinions from January 3 to April 7, with a sample size of 291,627.

Other pre-poll opinion surveys conducted by India TV-CNX, Lokniti-CSDS, and ABP News-CVoter also predicted a BJP win.

This evidence clarifies that the numbers in the viral post are from a pre-poll opinion survey conducted by India News before the 2024 Indian general elections began, not from a "live" exit poll as claimed.

Moreover, Election Commission of India (archived here) guidelines stipulate a ban on releasing exit poll results until polling in the last phase closes, which will be on June 1 at 6:30 p.m.

Logically Facts has previously debunked similar misattributed survey results that were falsely shared as exit polls. The fact checks can be read here, here, and here. 

The verdict

An opinion poll published by India News on April 16 before the 2024 Indian general election began is now being incorrectly shared as an exit poll predicting a win for the BJP. Therefore, we have marked the claim as false.