Pre-poll survey edited to claim TDP is leading in Andhra Pradesh

What is the claim?

Photos of Sri Atmasakshi (SAS) group's pre-poll survey of Andhra Pradesh state elections have been shared on X (formerly Twitter) with the claim that it shows the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Jana Sena Party(JSP) and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) alliance is poised to win polling scheduled for May 13 this year; along with general elections. According to the post, while the alliance is predicted to win 53.5 percent of votes and 136 seats out of a total 175, the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) is expected to win 41.5 percent of votes and 21 constituencies, with a close contest in 18 constituencies. Archives of these posts can be accessed here and here. 

Screenshot of the viral social media post (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, these are edited photos from the original pre-poll survey report released by the SAS group. The original report predicted a victory for YSRCP victory.

What did we find?

We accessed the report published by the SAS on March 23. The numbers in this original report predicted 48.5 percent votes and 93 seats for the YSRCP and 46.5 percent votes and 50 seats for the TDP-JSP-BJP, with a keen contest in 32 seats. These numbers seem to have been switched in the viral image.

We also looked for news reports about the pre-poll survey conducted by the SAS titled "MOOD OF ANDHRA PRADESH AS ON 23.03.2024." Numbers in Telugu digital media outlets like Sakshi Post and Telugu Global match those reported by SAS, but do not match the viral post. 

Among the keen contest seats, the report said that TDP is leading in 19 and YSRCP in 13. They have also provided predictions for the upcoming national elections. The poll predicted 15 seats out of the 25 for YSRCP and five for the alliance, with a keen contest to be observed in five.  Among the seats where a close contest will be seen, TDP is leading in three and YSRCP in two, according to the report. 

Viral report prediction and the original report prediction (Source: X/Sri Atmasakahi)

The viral photos also have discrepancies when compared to the original report. The report is 13 pages. The viral post combines pages nine and ten, which has district-wise number of predicted seats for various parties and the results summary respectively, thus displacing the page numbers at the bottom. 

Comparison between the viral report and the original report (Source: X/Sri Atmasakshi)

SAS has periodically conducted similar surveys, called the Mood of Andhra Pradesh. The latest was on March 23, and the one before was on March 5, 2024, which also predicted a YSRCP win.

We contacted SAS for clarification. The group sent us a graphic to clarify that the purported report predicting TDP’s victory was not theirs and that their original report predicted a YSRCP win. VR Murthy, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), told Logically Facts that the numbers in the viral posts are digitally edited. 

Clarification sent to Logically Facts by the SAS (Source: Sri Atmasakshi)

The verdict

A pre-poll survey report by the Sri Atmasakshi group predicting YSRCP’s win in the upcoming Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections has been edited to claim that it predicted TDP’s victory. Therefore, we have marked this claim as fake.