Opinion poll graphic predicting Congress win in 2024 Haryana elections is fake

What is the claim?

The Haryana Assembly elections, scheduled for October 5, 2024, will see voters in the north Indian state of Haryana elect all 90 members of its Legislative Assembly. A graphic circulating on social media claims to display the results of an opinion poll for these elections. According to the graphic, attributed to the Republic-Matrize opinion poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure 26-36 seats, the Indian National Congress (INC) 35-40 seats, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 15-20 seats, and other parties 0-2 seats. The post suggests that Congress is leading over the ruling BJP.

AAP spokesperson Nyvaan Sharma shared the graphic on X (formerly Twitter), stating in Hindi (translated), “We don’t form a government through surveys, we do it directly. One should not underestimate the political understanding of the people of Haryana. This is a fight for a change of power, and the old party never brings change.” Archived versions of the post can be found here, here, and here.

Screenshots of the viral social media posts. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, this claim is false. Republic-Matrize did not release any opinion poll projecting Congress' victory in the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections. The graphic in question is fabricated.

How did we find the truth?

Matrize is a market research and opinion survey organization that conducts polls for news outlets and political parties. They provided opinion and exit polls for Republic Bharat during the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. We reviewed both Republic Bharat and Matrize's websites and found no recent surveys for the Haryana elections.

We also checked Matrize’s official X account (archived here) and found no such opinion poll. Matrize has reposted several posts by Times Group news channels about various government topics and upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand, Haryana, and Maharashtra, indicating their current collaboration with Times Group for these polls. According to the Matrize-Times survey, (archived here), BJP+ is projected to win 37-42 seats, Congress 33-38 seats, Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) 3-8 seats, and others 7-12 seats.

This survey indicates that the BJP, not Congress, is likely to form the government in Haryana, and it does not project 15-20 seats for AAP.

How was the viral graphic made?

We conducted a reverse image search and found a similar image published by ETV Bharat on June 1, 2024. The original image showed exit poll results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Haryana. Upon comparison, we found that the exit poll results had been altered to appear as opinion polls for the Haryana Assembly elections.

The graphics share a similar pattern but with altered details. The term "exit poll" was changed to "opinion poll," and the number of seats was modified from 10 to 90. The number 90 in the viral version is written in a thicker font than the word "Seat"; in the original, both the number 10 and the word "Seat" had the same font thickness. Additionally, the spacing after the hyphen is uneven, indicating editing. The top-right text reading "Lok Sabha Elections 2024" in the original was changed to "Vidhan Sabha Election 2024," with a noticeable font thickness difference. Despite these changes, "Republic-Matrize," the voting finger logo, the map of Haryana, and the party names with their numbers remain consistent.

Comparison between the viral image and the original image. (Source: X/ETV Bharat/Modified by Logically Facts)

Haryana Assembly polls

The Election Commission rescheduled the Haryana Assembly election from October 1 to October 5 on August 31, due to a centuries-old Bishnoi community festival. Vote counting will now occur on October 8 instead of October 4. The BJP currently leads the state government, with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister.

The verdict

The graphic circulating online is a fabrication. It falsely claims to represent an opinion poll predicting Congress' victory in the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections. According to the Matrize opinion poll, the BJP is expected to win 37 to 42 of the 90 seats in the Assembly.