'ETG Research pre-poll survey' predicting TDP-JSP-BJP alliance win in Andhra Assembly polls is fake

What is the claim?

In the run-up to the Assembly elections in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh on May 13, the so-called findings of a purported pre-poll survey carried out by ETG Research, a market research and polling agency, are being shared on social media, claiming that the firm has predicted the victory of the opposition alliance comprising the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Jana Sena Party (JSP), and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state.

According to this purported survey, while the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is predicted to win 54.75 percent of the votes, the incumbent YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) is poised to win only around 36 percent votes. This purported survey also predicted that of the 175 Assembly constituencies in the state, TDP could win between 110-120, JSP 18-20, BJP 5-6, and YSRCP 24-27 seats.

Screenshot of the viral social media post (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, the polling agency did not release any such findings. 

What did we find?

We checked the official website and social media accounts of ETG Research to confirm if they conducted a pre-poll survey recently on the upcoming state elections in Andhra Pradesh, but did not find any indication of such a survey. No news outlets also reported on the findings of the purported survey.

ETG Research also clarified in a post on X (archived here) that the survey circulating online is fake. They added that their association is only with the English news channel Times Now and the Hindi counterpart Times Now Navbharat, and that as per the Election Commission of India (ECI) rules, they would release the predictions for the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections only on June 1, when the polling schedule ends. 

Screenshot of the clarification posted by ETG Research (Source: X/ETG Research)

ETG predictions for Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh

ETG Research, in collaboration with Times Now, has conducted pre-poll surveys across states for the ongoing parliamentary elections. 

According to pre-poll survey results in December 2023, for the Lok Sabha elections, the firm predicted YSRCP to win 24-25 of the 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh, while TDP was predicted to retain one seat. Similarly, according to another pre-poll survey results in March 2024, while YSRCP is expected to win 21-22 seats, the TDP-JSP combination is expected to win 3-4 seats. The latest survey results were released in April 2024 — predicting that YSRCP could win 19-20 seats, while the TDP-JSP-BJP trio may win three to four seats.

The firm has also periodically conducted surveys in Andhra Pradesh but so far has not put out their findings for the 2024 Assembly elections. 

Logically Facts has previously debunked fake poll surveys about the Andhra Pradesh elections, which can be read here and here. 

The verdict

A survey purportedly conducted by ETG Research has been shared to falsely claim that the opposition alliance in Andhra Pradesh is predicted to win the Assembly elections. However, ETG Research did not release such a survey. Therefore, we have marked it as fake.