Betting markets predict 200+ Lok Sabha seats for INDIA bloc? Viral News24 graphic is fake

What is the claim?

Ahead of the seventh and final phase of voting on June 1 for the ongoing Indian general election, multiple social media posts shared a photo purportedly showing predictions from various Satta Bazaars (betting markets) across India for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The photo carries a logo resembling that of News24, implying the news organization published it.

The photo includes predictions from well-known betting markets such as Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan, Belgaum Satta Bazar in Karnataka, and Kolkata Satta Bazar in West Bengal. According to this graphic, most betting markets have predicted over 200 seats for the INDIA bloc, suggesting a near majority for the Congress-led alliance, while predicting around 250-260 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), below the crucial majority mark of 272.

One post was shared with the caption, “#Breaking: Satta Bazar puts the NDA number below the majority mark of 272 and gives a near majority to the Congress-led INDIA alliance. Interesting…”

Several other social media users shared the graphic, claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not be returning for a third term. Archives of such posts on X and Instagram can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Instagram and X posts sharing the fake News24 template. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, we found that News24 has not published any such photo; the viral graphic is fabricated.

What is the truth?

We noticed that the logo used in the template says “NEWS 2024 THINK FIRST” instead of “NEWS 24 THINK FIRST,” indicating the graphic is fake. 

A fake logo was used in the template. (Source:X)

A Google search using relevant keywords did not find any such report published on the News24 website. Additionally, there were no such posts on the channel’s social media accounts.

Furthermore, News24 anchor Manak Gupta posted a clarification on X (archive here), denying that the organization had published such a report. He wrote, “FAKE ALERT: हमारे नाम से ये फ़ेक न्यूज़ वायरल की जा रही है. न्यूज़24 ने ऐसी कोई स्टोरी नहीं की है. सावधान रहें (Translation: This fake news is being made viral with attribution to us. News24 has not published any such story)."

Manak Gupta of News24 denied that the organization published such a graphic. (Source:@manakgupta/X)

Betting market predictions

Several organizations have published reports about Satta Bazaar predictions.

Financial Express published a report on May 24, 2024, titled “Phalodi Satta Bazar prediction: Can Rahul rock Modi’s boat this election? Grey market estimates OUT ahead of exit polls.” The report said predictions from Phalodi Satta Bazar after the sixth phase of elections estimated over 300 seats for the BJP. Another Financial Express report from May 30, 2024, said the estimates from Phalodi had been revised but still predicted a win for the BJP. These numbers do not match those in the viral graphic.

Additionally, a report by India Today noted that betting markets have predicted an easy win for the BJP.

It is important to note that these reports are not based on official numbers. They carry disclaimers advising users to stay away from betting markets, which are illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. According to an Economic Times report, the popular Phalodi Satta Bazar, an underground market in Rajasthan, is known for its predictions.

The verdict

News24 has not published any such story on betting market predictions, and the logo used in the viral image is different from the news portal's original logo. An anchor from the news channel has also confirmed that it is fake. Therefore, we have marked this claim as fake.