ABP News-CVoter opinion poll did not predict a win for INDIA bloc in 2024 general elections

What is the claim?

As the Indian general elections are coming to a close, with the last phase of voting to take place on June 1, multiple social media users are sharing a screenshot of the purported findings of an opinion poll attributed to the Indian news network ABP News. People have claimed that ABP News, using data collected by pollster CVoter, has allegedly predicted a win for the INDIA bloc in the ongoing Indian general election, giving them  258-286 seats in the Parliament, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managing 232-253 seats. (In India, the party or alliance needs to win at least more than half of the 545 Lok Sabha seats up for polls.)

The viral screenshot, which shows a red-and-white graphic filled with various numbers of seats for different political groups, also projects that the INDIA bloc will clinch 70-90 seats and 70-80 seats in North and South India, respectively, while the NDA will win 90-110 seats and 20-30 seats in North and South India, respectively.

The graphic also implied that according to the opinion poll, BJP’s Manoj Tiwari, the saffron party candidate from the North East Delhi Lok Sabha, could lose the elections. The screenshot was also shared on social media by Congress spokesperson Roshni Jaiswal, who poked fun at Tiwari over the prediction of his loss. Archived versions of this post and others making similar claims can be accessed here and here.

Posts claiming ABP opinion poll shows a victory for the INDIA bloc. (Source: @roshnikushal/X, X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, we found that this viral screenshot has been edited to make it seem that an ABP NEWS-CVoter survey projected a win for the INDIA bloc.

What is the truth?

Taking a cue from the clearly visible ABP News logo on the viral image, we were able to find a related video posted on the news network’s YouTube channel. It was uploaded on December 26, 2023, with the title ‘Lok Sabha Opinion Poll 2024: अमेठी लोक सभा सीट पर किसे कितने प्रतिशत वोट? | abp C Voter Survey’. The Hindi bit of the title translates to, “Who will get what percentage votes in the Amethi Lok Sabha Seat?”

We found that the frame used to create the viral graphic can be seen in this YouTube video at the 0:09 timestamp. The original graphic shows 165-205 seats for the INDIA bloc and 295-335 seats for the NDA, as opposed to 258-286 seats for INDIA and 232-253 for NDA in the viral screenshot.  

The viral graphic also changed the number of seats predicted in North India for the two rival political groups but retained the same numbers for South India. 

The original findings projected 150-160 seats for NDA in North India, whereas the edited version showed 90-110 seats for the alliance. Meanwhile, C-Voter projected 20-30 seats for the INDIA bloc while the viral graphic showed 70-90 seats for this alliance.

Additionally, for Tiwari’s North East Delhi seat, the original graphic said Tiwari is “ahead by an okay margin (translated).” Tiwari is up against Kanhaiya Kumar of the Congress party (part of the INDIA bloc) in North East Delhi.

Comparison of the real and the edited ABP news bulletin. (Source:ABP NEWS/YouTube, X)

A piece published on the ABP Live website, last updated on December 25, 2023, titled “Can I.N.D.I.A. Wrest Power From Modi-Led N.D.A? Detailed ABP-CVoter Survey Result For 2024 LS Polls” also mentions the same numbers as the video. The report, based on C-Voter data, stated that the NDA is projected to cross the majority mark of 271 seats and have a vote share of 42 percent, followed by the INDIA bloc with a share of 38 percent.

All this evidence confirms that the viral graphic has been edited and is a fake.

The verdict

We have marked this screenshot as fake as ABP-CVoter projected in December 2023 that NDA would win the ongoing polls with 295-335 seats, while the INDIA bloc would win only 165-205 seats.