By: Christian Haag
October 4 2024
Following Iran's missile attack on Israel on October 1, conspiracy accounts began to circulate a narrative that Israel turned off the Iron Dome to allow the country to be attacked.
The following day, the narrative had evolved when The People's Voice, a site known for spreading conspiracy theories, claimed the Iron Dome was turned off as a plot to usher in World War Three.
But the claim and narrative fall short of the truth.
Israel's military stated that Iran fired more than 180 missiles toward the country on October 1. It further claimed that the majority of the missiles were intercepted by Israel and a defensive coalition led by the United States. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that 90 percent of their projectiles hit their target.
Sky News identified seven impact locations that were not caught by Israel's missile defense systems, with the only reported fatality being a 38-year-old Palestinian who was killed by falling missile debris in Jericho.
The Times of Israel reported that some missiles hit central and southern Israel, including a school in Gedera. The Israeli military has also acknowledged that some airbases were hit during the attack but has not reported the destruction of any aircraft.
The false narratives by conspiracy accounts draw upon a misunderstanding of how the Iron Dome works.
The Iron Dome is a short-range mobile air defense system developed by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, both owned by the Israeli state.
The system was developed following the 2006 Lebanon war, when Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets per day into Israel. It was implemented in 2011 and first used in combat on April 7, 2011.
The Iron Dome is one part of Israel's multi-tiered missile defense system. The additional layers are David's Sling, developed by Rafael, and Arrow 2 and 3, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries. These additional systems have a longer range and respond to different types of projectiles, such as cruise and ballistic missiles.
Rafael claims the Iron Dome has a 90 percent success rate, with more than 5,000 projectiles intercepted since the system's inauguration. The system is also supported by the U.S. Patriot system.
The Iron Dome system features three elements: detection of incoming airborne threats, assessment of their likely point of impact, and interception.
When a hostile rocket is fired, the radar system detects and tracks the projectile. The control system then estimates where the projectile will land and decides if it should be intercepted. If so, the launcher fires a missile to intercept the rocket. If a projectile is estimated to land in an area where it can't cause any harm, it will be ignored and allowed through.
Logically Facts spoke to Michael Clarke, Professor of Defense Studies and visiting professor at Kings College London and the University of Exeter, who told us, "What makes the system so effective is that the radar and sensor coverage is so integrated that it gives this multi-layered system the best chance of intercepting the greatest number of incoming ballistic missiles, drones, cruise missiles or aircraft. Iron Dome is highly sophisticated and can even intercept incoming artillery shells."
The video below from the Wall Street Journal provides more information on how the Iron Dome system works.
As the purpose of the Iron Dome is not to intercept every projectile fired toward Israel then, by assessing where a missile will hit, missiles that land in open terrain will not be targeted.
Instead, the focus will be on those assessed to potentially do actual damage. For example, if 1,000 rockets are fired, and 700 are expected to land in open terrain and away from civilian areas, the Iron Dome system will focus on the remaining 300 and aim to intercept them.
"The system is designed to calculate where a ballistic missile will land — very predictable once it has been picked up — and leave it alone if it isn't going to do any harm (like land in the Negev desert) so as to concentrate on the dangerous ones," Clark told Logically Facts.
During our research, we found no credible evidence suggesting that Israel has ever turned its missile system off deliberately.
"It is on permanently because Israel calculates that rocket attacks can happen, and have happened, usually on a daily basis somewhere in Israel, particularly in the south, opposite the Gaza border, and in the north, opposite the Lebanon border," Clarke said. "It is never, ever, deliberately turned off."
The U.S., UK, France, and Jordan are believed to have helped support Israel.
Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Major General Pat Ryder held a press conference following Iran's attack on Israel, stating that U.S. forces in the Mediterranean helped defend Israel against the Iranian attack. The Two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, the USS Cole and USS Bulkeley fired a dozen interceptors against incoming ballistic missiles.
The U.K. Ministry of Defence stated that three aircraft took part but did not engage any targets during the attack. Israeli media outlet Haaretz reported that France and Jordan also helped Israel, but the nature of their support is unclear.
Since Israel's missile defense system doesn't shoot down every projectile, but only those assessed to cause harm, some projectiles will appear to "go through the Iron Dome," which can be seen in videos online.
This, and the subsequent impact of explosions, have been falsely interpreted as the system malfunctioning or being turned off. This does not indicate that the Iron Dome system has been turned off deliberately — rather, it indicates that the projectiles were not deemed dangerous and were, therefore, allowed to land in open terrain.
These narratives draw upon a flawed understanding of the Iron Dome system and Israel's missile defense systems. These conspiratorial narratives will undoubtedly continue to crop up in the event of further escalation in the Middle East.