Here's what you should know about Sweden's 'crisis or war' pamphlets

On November 18, 2024, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) began distributing 5.2 million copies of the new edition of its guide "In case of crisis or war" to Swedish households. Similar measures have recently been undertaken in neighboring Norway and Finland.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean on November 18, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range U.S. missiles inside Russia, despite warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin that such a move would be interpreted as "direct participation" of Nato countries in the conflict.

The timing of these two events did not go unnoticed by international media outlets.

One of the articles generating a lot of online attention was from Mail Online, whose headline read: "Sweden tells citizens to prepare for WAR: Five million households get pamphlets on how to prepare their homes for nuclear armageddon... as Biden is accused of trying to start World War Three." 

While the article's body contains the context needed to understand the situation, a screenshot of the headline was shared in social media posts.

"Okay, Sweden, you've gotten me a bit shook up about World War 3," a TikTok user said in a video (archived here) seen over 34,000 times within one day. Like many others, the user talks about the pamphlets in the context of Biden's decision. 

Another TikTok user, whose video (archived here) has amassed over 121,000 views, claims that Sweden is preparing for World War III and telling citizens "that this is an actual threat, like this is a serious threat."

Examples of some of the posts (archived here, here, here, here, here and here). Source: X/TikTok/Screenshots/Modified by Logically Facts. 

We contacted Swedish experts to get a better idea of what is going on. Here's what you need to know.

Is this in response to Biden's decision or World War III fears?

No. The pamphlet has been planned since March 7, as shown by a statement from the Swedish Government published at the time.

Niklas Eklund, a professor of Political Science at Umeå University, stressed the booklet's content was outlined and produced long before the discussion about allowing Ukraine to use long-range U.S. missiles.

"[The publication] is not a dramatic step, and it's not an escalation of Sweden's contingency politics. The talk about 'World War 3' is all part of Russian escalation rhetoric and has nothing to do with government policy and mass communication in Sweden," Eklund said.

"Everyone is writing about the new geopolitical situation in Europe and Russia as a new major threat, and part of what they're looking for is how states are preparing. Sweden's pamphlet is seen in that light," Mark Rhinard, professor of International Relations at Stockholm University, told Logically Facts.

Why is it being sent out now, then?

A CNN news anchor erroneously claimed that the recent publication was "pretty significant" as the last booklet was issued during World War II – something Sweden's Minister for Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, refuted live on air. The last edition was sent out to households in 2018.

Sweden became a full member of NATO on March 7, 2024, which, coupled with the worsening geopolitical situation since the 2018 edition, meant it was time for an updated version, Bohlin said in a press statement in March. 

Rhinard noted that while the first pamphlet covers crisis more broadly, the threat of war is more prominent in the new edition. "What's come back now is that war and crisis are on even footing in the booklet — if not war being a little more pronounced," he said.

Eklund stressed that the revision is part of Sweden's mass communication strategy on total defense matters, adding, "It's business as usual." 

So … is it a nuclear war survival guide?

"Nuclear war is not the main point of the brochure – it's mentioned only at one point in the pamphlet," Ulrika Mörth, a professor of Political Science at Stockholm University, said.

As its name suggests, the booklet focuses on various situations, including extreme weather events, dangerous pathogens, outages in crucial IT systems, organized crime, and war. The threat of nuclear weapons is detailed once, under the section on seeking shelter.

The section on seeking shelter during an aid raid from "In case of crisis or war," MSB 2024. (Source: MSB/Screenshot)

"We're talking about general information about all crises and situations that can disrupt the normal functioning of society, and how citizens can prepare," Eklund said. "It doesn't have a squat to do with a 'nuclear Armageddon'."

"I'm sure it's a great headline in the British press," he added, "but all it really does is help the Russian trolls by reproducing the Russian escalation rhetoric."

Why aren't the Swedes freaking out about this?

A key thing to know is that Sweden, similar to Norway and Finland, has a "total defense" policy. 

This means national service, which applies during states of heightened alert, is compulsory for all residents between the ages of 16 and 70 who are not enrolled in military or civilian service. It involves helping Sweden prepare for war, either by continuing to work in your regular job or by taking on assignments such as water transport, childcare, or food preparation.

Due to Sweden's attempt to ready the entire population in the event of a crisis, the country has a long-standing history of providing citizens with essential information on what is expected of them, dating back to World War II. 

Svante Werger, senior strategist at MSB, said this context is essential in understanding Sweden's civic preparedness culture – and the new booklet.

"Brochures with the title 'In case of war' were sent to all households several times – 1943, 1952, and 1961. Later, similar information was included in the official telephone book," Werger told Logically Facts. "After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the concept of total defense was reestablished in Sweden, and a couple of years later, MSB got a government assignment to produce a brochure that should be sent to the population. It was sent out in May 2018, and it was generally very well received."

Rhinard said that "it's not entirely true that total defense preparedness is in the blood of all Swedes," considering this break from the total defense policy, and that Sweden – like other Nordic countries – has had to re-address its civil preparedness following the annexation of Crimea.

"I think the act of mailing on security issues is unique in the world, and therefore, it brings extra international attention," said Rhinard. "Very few countries bother to mail every citizen anything. So the fact that we did this in the Nordic countries raises eyebrows."

Comments stating the move is routine. Source: TikTok (archived here, here)/Screenshots/Modified by Logically Facts

In response to the international perception, some Nordic social media users have taken it upon themselves to address the misconception, writing in the comments section that it's "just routine" and "nothing to worry about."

One reason why the booklet isn't perceived as dramatic by the Swedish general public is, Mörth believes, the long-standing history and public awareness of total defense.

"We are used to the concept, and so are the Finns – particularly the older generations who grew up during the Cold War and were taught contingency plans in school," said Mörth.

Mail Online has been approached for comment.