Conspiracy theories take hold online as Hurricane Milton makes landfall

As Hurricane Milton makes landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, conspiracy theories and misinformation are adding fog and alarm to social media discussions. 

It comes as states across the southeast of the United States are reeling from Hurricane Helene, which landed on September 26 as a Category 4 storm. 

The Associated Press reported on October 9 that at least 230 people have died since Hurricane Helene, making it the deadliest hurricane to hit the country since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. 

The disaster has become a political flashpoint just weeks before voters head to the polls, with both presidential candidates traveling to affected areas. 

We used Logically Accelerate, a tool for discovering fact-check-worthy content on social media, to find iterations of conspiracy theory narratives shared in video format on TikTok and YouTube.

Logically Facts analyzed the conspiracy theories taking hold online, with the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other bodies involved in rescue efforts central in the narratives detected.

Hurricane Milton's path was planned to target Republicans 

Logically Facts detected the claim that Hurricane Milton's path was purposefully chosen to target a predominantly Republican state.

A video found using Logically Accelerate shows a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) flight path around the Gulf of Mexico (callsign NOAA49) with text that says: "IYK IYK... they're taking out red states. It's in our faces now!"

The caption of the clip reads, "It's right there guys. What are the odds TWO storms of the century would happen 2 weeks apart? #cloudseeding #hurricaneseason #hurricane #Milton."

Screenshot of TikTok post showing the flight path of NOAA49, with a screenshot of caption beneath. (Source: TikTok/"False" label added by Logically Facts) 

A spokesperson for NOAA told Logically Facts that the organization operates a jet under the callsign NOAA49 that has been conducting flights to take readings of the wind and atmospheric conditions using weather probes called dropsondes and radars.

"This information helps forecasters predict the storm's path," the spokesperson said, adding that the NOAA posted a video on October 7 explaining the mission behind collecting data on the hurricane. 

Hurricane Milton was created using cloud seeding

Logically Accelerate detected this video recorded before Hurricane Milton made landfall of a plane flying across a blue sky with words across the clip that read, "Cloud seeding day before Milton hits ! WHY ?? October 8 Florida 2024."

Experts told Logically Facts that there is no evidence that either hurricane was influenced or created by cloud seeding or other forms of intentional weather modification.

Cloud seeding is a "practice in which fine particles are sprayed into clouds from aircraft or ground-based guns, and the particles allow water droplets to collect," Scott Denning, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, said to Logically Facts.

It is primarily used to address water shortages, Laura Kuhl, associate professor of public policy, urban affairs and international affairs at Northeastern University, said, and is "most effective when slowly used to build up snowpack."

"Even under these ideal conditions, effects are small, and the efficacy is questionable," she said.

Cloud seeding is not capable of creating the scale of both weather events, both told Logically Facts.

"Cloud seeding is practiced primarily by shady salesmen with little 4-seater Cessnas that hope to get a little rain out of a puffy cloud on a sunny afternoon," Denning said. 

"It is ridiculous to think this kind of thing could influence a monster hurricane that covers a quarter of the Gulf of Mexico!"

On October 3, NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab published sea surface temperature data recorded in waters around the Gulf of Mexico, saying that warm waters helped fuel Hurricane Helene.

"In that sense, yes, both hurricanes are associated with weather modification: human-induced modification of the climate system through the burning of fossil fuels," said Kuhl.

Hurricane Helene was purposely created by weather manipulation

Logically Accelerate detected this video, in which the user suggests that Hurricane Helene was created using the High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) research facility based at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

According to the university, HAARP uses a high-frequency transmitter to study the ionosphere — the planet's upper atmosphere. 

The video detected by Logically Accelerate shows text that reads, in part: "Does anyone feel that hurricane Helene was apart of harp and we are being distracted from something far more sinister?! [sic]"

Logically Facts already addressed this claim in a fact-check published on October 2 — Helene first formed as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane.  

"The genesis of Hurricane Helene, as is the case for any hurricane, formed on its own given the right conditions of sea surface temperature and upper atmospheric winds, and that was the case with Helene," Howard Diamond, Director of Atmospheric Sciences and Modeling Division at NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory, said to Logically Facts.

Logically Facts previously addressed conspiracy theories pinning HAARP as responsible for natural phenomena including the aurora borealis and earthquakes. In 2023, Logically Facts published a detailed analysis of how HAARP is a consistent theme in conspiracy theory narratives.

FEMA is only giving survivors $750 dollars in aid to victims 

Social media users claimed that FEMA would only give $750 in aid per household to those in need following the hurricane. We used Logically Accelerate to detect this claim on TikTok.

An initial one-time emergency payment of $750 per household is true, but those affected can apply and qualify for further funding. 

FEMA responded to the rumor, saying, "This is false. This is a type of assistance that you may be approved for soon after you apply, called Serious Needs Assistance. It is an upfront, flexible payment to help cover essential items and other emergency supplies."

Screenshot of FEMA website captured October 10, 2024. (Source: FEMA) 

The agency added that FEMA then assesses eligibility for additional funds. 

The White House also said, in a fact sheet published on October 2, that "individuals may also qualify to receive disaster-related financial assistance to repair storm-related damage to homes and replace personal property, as well as assistance to find a temporary place to stay."

FEMA planned Hurricane Helene to confiscate homes

Logically Facts detected the claim that FEMA either planned the hurricane or is obstructing people from going to certain areas so that they can claim the land for lithium mining.

We used Logically Accelerate to find videos repeating this claim on TikTok and YouTube.

One individual in a video claims that FEMA can "confiscate my land or property if they deem it unlivable" and said, "If you ask for assistance, they can claim your property, they can claim your land."

A clip on YouTube detected by Logically Accelerate suggested that the hurricane was a ploy to destroy houses and curb protests against the expansion of a quartz mine.

However, experts told Logically Facts that applying for the one-time $750 relief does not automatically mean that FEMA deems property unlivable and can confiscate it, contrary to claims.

Karen O'Neill, an associate professor of sociology at Rutgers University, said to Logically Facts that "$750 is merely the cash amount handed out for the people most severely affected, for immediate use."

In response to claims that FEMA could confiscate land should individuals apply for the $750 relief, FEMA said, "Applying for disaster assistance does not grant FEMA or the federal government authority or ownership of your property or land."

TikTok clips claim aid is being withheld, access restricted

Others said online that agencies have been actively blocking aid or withholding supplies from those impacted by the hurricane.

An individual in a video on TikTok, detected using Logically Accelerate, says, "For those trying to get help to those people, they're being stopped and turned away — I'd love to hear the explanation on why FEMA is holding supplies."

Elon Musk posted on X (formerly Twitter) on October 4 a screenshot of text messages saying that flights were about to be shut down, which would impact the delivery of supplies. 

The North Carolina Department of Public Safety said in a statement released on its website, in response to claims that volunteers had been turned away, that impacted roadways were dangerous, with some impassable. 

It added, "In some areas, traffic is being rerouted to maintain the availability of roadways for emergency response, coordinated disaster relief efforts, and local traffic."

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said on ABC News on October 6, "We continue to move in critical commodities into the places that have been hard to reach."

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said in a statement on its website that while it can issue Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) to ensure safety for aircraft conducting rescue activities, these restrictions do not ban aircraft from providing disaster relief and recovery assistance.

FEMA ran out of money as funds went to migrants

Other claims online say that FEMA does not have funding to aid recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene as funds had been directed toward migration. 

At a rally in Michigan on October 3, Trump also aired the claim, saying, "If you want to see how sick and distorted Kamala Harris' priorities are — just consider FEMA. Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants."  

Logically Accelerate found this same narrative to be widespread on TikTok.

According to the Associated Press on October 2, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said that FEMA "does not have the funds to make it through the season," but also said, "We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have." 

In a statement in response to rumours that funding was shifted from disaster relief efforts, FEMA said, "No disaster relief funding was diverted to support migrants. FEMA's budget is dedicated to responding to disasters."

The claim conflates the Disaster Relief Fund with the Shelter and Services program. 

The Shelter and Services Program is funded through the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and administrated by FEMA to provide shelter to migrants.

However, this is not the same as the Disaster Relief Fund, which, per FEMA, allows the agency to manage recovery efforts associated with major domestic disasters and emergencies, as per the Stafford Act.

Screenshot of FEMA website on the Disaster Relief Fund captured October 10, 2024. (Source: FEMA) 

In another statement published online on October 3, the agency said, "FEMA has enough money right now for immediate response and recovery needs." 

The long history of FEMA intertwined with conspiracy theories

FEMA has long been a central theme in conspiracy theory narratives, including in claims addressed by Logically Facts pertaining to the 2023 Maui wildfires.

The claims surrounding the agency have shifted, Mike Rothschild, author of The Storm Is Upon Us: How QAnon Became a Movement, Cult, and Conspiracy Theory of Everything, said to Logically Facts.

"In the past, the idea was always that FEMA was going to round up gun owners and dissenters and imprison them in 'FEMA camps' that would be open-air concentration points," he said.   

The Southern Poverty Law Center, a U.S. nonprofit legal advocacy group, published an article in 2010 detailing the narratives that circulated at the time, including claims that the agency constructed camps to imprison Americans.

Conspiracy theories aimed at response efforts have a real-world impact. Rothschild told Logically Facts, "And people lose trust and faith in federal authorities, give up hope, and, at worst, actively try to impede FEMA relief efforts."