Monetary aid for Ukraine: Who really benefits?

The new U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer suspended seven Labour MPs last week after a rebellion in the House of Commons over the controversial two-child benefit cap, which prevents most parents from claiming Universal Credit or child tax credit benefits for a third child. 

With discussion over whether removing the cap is affordable for the government, unsubtle suggestions swept across social media regarding where the money could be found. The near-universal idea in these posts? Stop aiding Ukraine and focus on issues closer to home. 

Novara Media contributing editor Ash Sarkar stated that there is money for Ukraine in response to someone defending Keir Starmer. (Source: X) 

In the last two years, many countries have sought to strengthen defense capabilities and collaborations while continuing to aid Ukraine. Starmer used NATO's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington to underline the U.K.'s "cast-iron" commitment to the defense alliance, while former PM Rishi Sunak previously committed to allocating 2.5 percent of GDP to defense by 2030. 

The world spent more on military costs and weapons in 2023 than in the past 35 years. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies predicts a "dangerous decade" ahead, marked by aggressive military actions and a shift towards "might is right" politics. Driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and heightened global tensions, the surge in defense budgets raises critical questions on military spending, while citizens across Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. share concerns about their tax money going to other countries as their domestic problems remain unsolved.

People have shared concerns about their tax money funding wars while domestic problems remain unsolved. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts).

There is a guideline that NATO members should invest two percent of their GDP in defense, but the tumultuous events of recent years have made some countries' leaders insist on higher numbers. According to the latest data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the total military allocation in the U.K. in 2023 comprised 2.3 percent of the country's GDP, and 0.432 percent was allocated to aid Ukraine. Ukraine allocates 37 percent of its GDP to military needs. Russia's military spending in 2024 is expected to increase to 7.1 percent of its GDP and 35 percent of total government spending.

The United States sends more aid to beneficiaries worldwide than any other country yearly. In 2024, the country is expected to allocate 3.1 percent of its GDP to defense. Since the war in Ukraine began, the U.S. Congress has voted through five bills that have provided Ukraine with ongoing aid, with a total budget of $175 billion.

How much the U.S. has spent on the war. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations)

It's important to note that of the $175 billion total, $107 billion directly aids the government of Ukraine. Most of the remainder of the funds are for various U.S. activities associated with the war, and a small portion supports other affected countries in the region. From this $107 billion, $34.2 billion is allocated for Ukrainian budget support, $69.8 billion for weapons, equipment, and other military purposes, and $2.9 billion goes to Ukraine's humanitarian needs.

A large share of the aid bill is spent in the United States, paying for American factories and workers to produce the weapons that are either shipped to Ukraine or to replenish the U.S. weapons stocks the Pentagon has drawn on during the war. Analysis by the American Enterprise Institute found that Ukraine aid funds defense manufacturing in more than seventy U.S. cities. 

These facts, however, don't prevent the spread of military and economy-related myths and misinformation that continue to spread on social media from all political directions.

Claims that enhancing the defense sector drains the economy

In an April speech, Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, shared his thoughts about a new U.S. defense spending bill. He stated, "While it does invest some in critical manufacturing of American weapons, it sends those weapons overseas faster than it even replenishes them. This is not a bill to rebuild the defense industrial base. This is a bill to further extend this country." He acknowledged the same sentiment in a letter to the Washington Post. 

While a direct link between rising military spending and increased revenues is not obvious, the by-products of defense spending boost the economy. The U.S. Navy, for example, ensures free access to trade routes that secure America's access to global markets. Since trade comprises 23 percent of the U.S. economy, access to international commerce benefits American jobs and manufacturing exports. Additionally, overseas defense investments create more jobs in the U.S. defense industries.

The Congressional Research Service states that around two-thirds of foreign assistance is spent via U.S.-based entities. 

The defense sector also significantly contributes to the U.K. economy. The Joint Economic Data Hub (JEDHub) reported growth in employment, recruitment, and revenue in the defense sector. The U.K.’s defense exports increased by 69.9 percent in just one year, from £6.6 billion in 2021 to £11.2 billion in 2022.

In a conversation with BBC journalists, the Minister for the Armed Forces of the U.K., Luke Pollard, was asked whether defense spending would be directly linked to economic growth. He responded that growing the economy was "non-negotiable."

Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the U.S. non-profit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Logically Facts, "I don’t think you can say confidently that the U.S. economy is larger due to the war, but some of its sectors certainly are." 

Claims spending more on defense means neglecting sectors like healthcare

Social media users accuse the government of spending money on war while neglecting poverty. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

The total amount of money that the government spends each year in the U.K. is called total managed expenditure (TME). The U.K. spends around two-thirds of the total on public services like the NHS, schools, and prisons. Around a quarter goes to social security — universal credit, and the state pension. 

Health spending comprises 18.3 percent of TME, accounting for almost £1 in every £5, while defense accounts for 4.8 percent. 

Claims that Washington is writing Kyiv 'blank checks' 

A social media user claiming Ukraine and Israel receive blank checks from the U.S. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

Since Republican candidate Trump picked JD Vance as his running mate, concerns that Washington could dramatically rein in support for Ukraine increased. Vance repeatedly stresses his opposition to the U.S., writing what he has called "blank checks" to help Kyiv fight off the Russian invasion.

Back in 2022, Republican Kevin McCarthy also warned that if Republicans took the majority, there would be no "blank check" to help support Ukraine in the war. Oksana Markarova, a Ukrainian politician and the current Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States, commented to Logically Facts that "Ukraine never asked for blank checks. We always say why and what we need."

Luke Coffey, a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, explains and confirms that every dollar that the U.S. provides to assist Ukraine is authorized and appropriated by the U.S. Congress for a specific purpose. There has never been a "blank check," and most of the money the U.S. has provided Ukraine never leaves the U.S. In an X post, he wrote, "'Blank check' is a bumper sticker. Not a serious analysis."

Claims that the U.S. is the only significant donor to Ukraine

Former U.S. President and current candidate, Donald Trump, recently accused Europe of failing to pay its share in supporting Ukraine. In response, European Council President Charles Michel recommended that Trump "get the facts straight." 

Trump, however, has strong support for his stance on Ukraine. In February 2022, his running mate Vance, then a candidate for U.S. Senate, said, "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another." 

"Senator Vance was one of the leading opponents of the new assistance package to Ukraine last spring and has expressed indifference to what happens in that war," said Michael McFaul, director at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a former ambassador to Russia. "By choosing Vance as his running mate, Trump has clarified a very clear choice for American voters in November on foreign policy."

Statements about Europe not doing enough for Ukraine compared to the U.S. ended up on social media, forming a narrative that the U.S. is giving Ukraine more than it can afford. 

A social media user claiming the U.S. has too much of a national debt to allow helping foreign countries. (Source: X/Modified by Logically Facts)

However, while the size of U.S. aid stands out compared to the critical support to Ukraine from other countries, many European governments are making larger financial contributions to Ukraine relative to the size of their economies.

The countries giving the most to Ukraine by share of GDP. (Source: Antezza et al., Ukraine Support Tracker, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.)

The share of Americans who say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine has grown steadily throughout the war, especially among Republicans. A Pew Research Center survey finds that 48 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the U.S. is giving too much aid to Ukraine. Just 16 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners view the current level of U.S. aid as excessive.

Percentage who say that when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. is providing too much, about right, or not enough support to Ukraine. (Source: Pew Research Center) 

Who's seeding these ideas?

As Western governments have repeatedly expressed their commitment to helping Ukraine withstand Russian aggression, the Kremlin has benefited from pointing out fraught Western history and the previous actions of those countries. Russia has incited anti-Western sympathy and used it to gain ground through social media — particularly in countries that suffered from Western colonization, such as those in Africa and across Latin America. And it’s not only there.

U.S. House Intelligence Committee chair Mike Turner told CNN on April 2024 that Russian propaganda has "absolutely" seeped its way to Congress. "We see, directly coming from Russia, attempts to mask communications that are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor," the Ohio Republican commented.

When Biden proposed a $24 billion supplemental funding for Ukraine in August 2023, Kremlin propagandists were trying to undermine public support for the bill. According to internal Kremlin documents reviewed by the Washington Post, it organized a campaign to influence congressional and other political debates to share anti-Ukraine sentiment. 

This investigation disclosed the political strategists instructing a troll farm employee to write a comment of "no more than 200 characters in the name of a resident of a suburb of a major city." The additional characteristic was that this fictitious American "doesn’t support the military aid that the U.S. is giving Ukraine and considers that the money should be spent defending America's borders and not Ukraine's."

Frequently referenced in the context of pro-Russian propaganda, the Doppelgänger network created fake versions of real news websites in the U.S., Israel, Germany, Japan, and other countries. Those websites were filled with anti-Ukrainian narratives. U.S. officials noted that their techniques make identifying Russian operations particularly difficult.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is one of the first conflicts where AI has been harnessed to push an alarming amount of disinformation. Recently, BBC Verify and BBC News investigated a case of using materials created with artificial intelligence to undermine support for Ukraine ahead of the U.S. elections. Journalists highlighted the proliferation of fake stories, often created with AI, aimed to influence U.S. voters and foster distrust ahead of the November elections. Common themes in these stories include support for Ukraine and aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Is aiding Ukraine an investment, a necessity, or a charity?

Ann Marie Dailey, from the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, told Logically Facts, "Supporting Ukraine isn't charity. It is a way for the United States to reassert itself at a time when its influence is faltering. It is a golden opportunity to cement the support of U.S. allies and partners — its greatest advantage over Russia and China." 

She added, "Support for Ukraine isn’t just a good deed; it’s also a good deal. From January 2022 to January 2024, the United States gave Ukraine roughly $46 billion in military assistance. From 1941 to 1945, the United States sent the current equivalent of $831 billion to allies fighting fascist regimes in the Atlantic and Pacific and ultimately had to sacrifice 416,000 American men and women to the cause of freedom. Ukraine can still win without U.S. troops."